My predictions for Immigration policy in 2009
It seems everyone is making predictions for the new year so I figure I can as well. My predictions are based on what I see going on around me in the San Francisco Bay area. Unfortunately I do not see a good year ahead for immigrants in the year to come, but not wanting to end on a pessimistic note, my last prediction is not depressing, although somewhat sarcastic. Here are my predictions:
1. There will be no immigration reform in 2009.
Although President-elect Obama has stated in his Plan for Science and Innovation that immigration reform is important to attract talented people to the United States, I do not see it happening in 2009 - at least reform that will benefit immigrants. Unfortunately, I do see immigration restriction as a possibility. Historically, our immigration laws have been tied to the economic situation in the U.S. When work is plentiful, our immigration policies encourage immigration. When work is perceived as scarce, our laws become restrictive. For example, in the 1840s and 1860s, American welcomed large numbers of Chinese immigrants. They primarily worked in mining (during the Gold Rush) and on building the railroads. When mining decreased and jobs were perceived as scarce, our government in 1882 passed the "Chinese Exclusion Act," which prohibited "skilled and unskilled laborers and Chinese employed in mining" from entering the country for ten years under penalty of imprisonment and deportation. It also prohibited Chinese lawful permanent residents who were already in the United States from obtaining citizenship. It had far reaching repercussions and effectively stopped immigrants from China from being able to immigrate. Following another wave of immigrants in the early 1900s, our government restricted immigration in the 1920s with a strict quota enacted in 1924. The quota together with the Depression, effectively curtailed immigration in the United States until after World War II. Given the current economic situation today, I believe history will repeat itself and we will not see any legislation that will expand immigration.
2. There will be no additional H-1B numbers allocated this year.
Based on what I mentioned in the previous paragraph, I do not see an expansion in the H-1B program. The H-1B program (permitting professionals to work for a temporary period in specialty occupations) has come under a lot of criticism in the past year. Employers and advocates will have a hard time explaining why additional numbers are needed when there is high unemployment in the United States.
3. USCIS will not catch up on their backlog of adjudicating applications.
There has been a backlog of applications ever since I have been practicing immigration law (18 years ago). I predict that there will be fewer applications filed this year with USCIS because of the economy. I.e., a potential naturalization applicant will delay filing due to the $675.00 filing fee or a potential petitioner will not petition for his or her relatives because of not meeting the affidavit of support requirements. A declining number of new applications filed should mean that USCIS will be able to catch up on their backlogs. Nevertheless, even with a declining number of applications being filed, I do not see USCIS ever catching up. They will allocate their resources to somewhere else.
4. Waiting times for appointments at USCIS should improve.
If there are fewer people filing applications, there should be fewer people being scheduled for appointments at USCIS. They should actually be able to schedule you sooner for your interview and on the day of the interview, adjudication officers should be able to see you on time.
I'll be interested to see what happens over the next year. Happy New Year!
